Question: negotiation progress .2 .7

2. military preparations .7 .2

3. nuclear development .6 .3

4. government reforms .3 .7

5. support from allies .6 .4

a) What are the revised probabilities for each of these symptoms?

b) What are the joint effects of negotiation progress and nuclear development on the chances of going to war?

c) What do you conclude from these analyses about the probability of war between these countries?