Question: Question 7:

Suppose you are an aide to the governor of your state. Because of a much publicized story of a mentally deranged person killing a number of innocent victims in a crowded restaurant with an AR-15, the governor is considering passage of the Linden Law, named after the lawmaker who wrote the bill, which is a proposal to ban all sales of automatic guns within state borders or on the internet.

This issue is emotionally charged, and the governor is keenly aware of the political cost of an unpopular decision. Facing this controversial problem, the governor sees three options: To do nothing, to propose a mild law banning the sale of a few such weapons, or to establish a commission.

If the governor does nothing, there would be a political cost, to which the governor's advisers assign a value of -3. If a mild ban is unilaterally imposed, it will cause a net loss of popularity, valued at -2. On the other hand, if an independent commission is set up, the governor may be able to circumvent this lose-lose situation. However, the governor has no control over the recommendations of an independent commission.

The commission may come up with a "do nothing" recommendation, which would absolve the governor for not doing anything (value = 0). Another possibility is that the commission will recommend a mild ban, or it could suggest a strict ban on the ownership of automatic weapons. The governor, however, retains the right to go along with the commission or to reject its recommendations.

If the commission recommends a mild ban, the governor can accept it for a political payoff of +3, or he may reject it and do nothing for a small loss of -1 (the commission has taken the edge off the governor's inaction). A real problem may arise if the commission recommends a radical plan of gun control. If the governor accepts it, he will be hit for a loss of -10, but if he rejects the plan, he will incur a loss of -4.

The probability that the commission, which will have broad-based support, will recommend doing nothing is .3, the chance that it will suggest a mild ban is .5, and the chance that it will support a strict gun control measure is .2.

If you are a political analyst for the governor, what will be your recommendation and why?