Problem 1: Drilling for Oil

Wylie Coyote has built a rocket car fueled by pure crude oil in an effort to catch the Road Runner. The problem is of course, there isn’t a lot of pure crude oil around. So, he has purchased the oil rights to a portion of the Texas dessert that he has calculated has a 75% chance of having oil. In a field with oil pockets, the prob ab ility of striking oil in a given test well is 8%. In a field with no oil pockets the prob ab ility is zero. The problem is you can’t tell the difference.

Part A:

What is the expected number of oil strikes that Wylie would get from an oil bearing field after drilling 50 test wells?

What is the std deviation of the number of oil strikes from 50 test wells.

What is the prob ab ility of having no oil strikes from 50 test wells if the field has oil pockets?

Part B:

Wylie is successful and finds oil to fuel his rocket car. Wylie knows that to catch the roadrunner he must:

1. Find Oil
2. Ignite the rocket car just as the road runner passes (p=75%)
3. Not have the rocket car explode (p=70%)

Either 4A) be fast enough to catch the roadrunner on the straight section of road (p=30%)

Or 4B) be ab le to drive the car through twists and turns (80%)

Finally 5) he has to avoid any oncoming trucks

The prob ab ility of avoiding an oncoming truck is 90% if condition 4A applies and 40% if condition 4A does not apply.

Probabilities for 1,2,3,4A and 4B are independent.

What is the prob ab ility Wylie catches the roadrunner with this design?

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Solution: The downloadable solution consists of 3 pages, 337 words.
Deliverable: Word Document