Statistics - Regression Projects

The data file sears.xls present the gross revenues (in billions of current dollars) of Sears, Roebuck

Problem: The data file sears.xls present the gross revenues (in billions of current dollars) of Sears, Roebuck & Company over the 30 year period from 1975 through 2004.

Year	Coded Yr	Revenues
1975	0	13.1
1976	1	17.7
1977	2	19.6
1978	3	22.9
1979	4	24.5
1980	5	25.2
1981	6	27.4
1982	7	30
1983	8	35.9
1984	9	38.8
1985	10	40.7
1986	11	42.3
1987	12	48.4
1988	13	50.3
1989	14	53.8
1990	15	56
1991	16	57.2
1992	17	52.3
1993	18	50.8
1994	19	54.6
1995	20	34.9
1996	21	38.2
1997	22	41.3
1998	23	41.3
1999	24	41.1
2000	25	40.9
2001	26	41.1
2002	27	41.4
2003	28	41.1
2004	29	36.1

Plot the data
Compute the linear trend forecasting equation
Compute the quadratic trend forecasting equation
Compute the exponential trend forecasting equation.
Find the best fitting auto aggressive model, using a = 0.05 .
Perform a residual analysis for each of the models in (b) through (e)
Compute the standard error of the estimate s _yx and the MAD for each corresponding model in (f).
On the basis of your results in (f) and (g), along with a consideration of principle of parsimony, which model would you select for purposes of forecasting? Discuss
Using the selected model in (h), forecast gross revenues for 2005.