Question: An article in Harvard Business Review looked at percentage of negative media stories about British Petroleum in 2005 and 2006. The monthly data, in percent from January 2005 through September 2006, are as follows.

14, 10, 50, 24, 16, 15, 20, 42, 18, 26, 21, 20 , 18, 10, 22, 24, 26, 24, 18, 58, 40

Can you predict the percentage of negative media stories about BP for October 2006? Comment on the value of such an analysis.