Question: Commercial planes have an excellent safety record. Nevertheless, these are crashes occasionally, with the loss of many lives. In the weeks following a crash, airlines often report a drop in the number of passengers, probably because people are afraid to risk flying.

a) A travel agent suggests that, since the law of averages makes it highly unlikely to have two plane crashes within a few weeks of each, flying soon after a crash, is the safest time. What do you think?

b) If the airline industry proudly announces that is has set a new record for the longest period of safe flights, would you be reluctant to fly? Are the airlines due to have a plane crash?

c) State the law of averages and explain for each of the parts above why it does or does not apply to the questions in a and b.