Question: Refer to Exercise 15.62, in which Anna Chen was interested in forecasting the number of sick days taken by employees at Datatron each month.

a. Develop a single exponential smoothing model using alpha = 0.20. Use as a starting value the average of the

first six months’ data. Determine the forecasted value for month 37.

b. Compute the MAD for this model.

c. Plot the forecast values against the actual data.

d. Use the same starting value, but try different smoothing constants (say, 0.10, 0.20, 0.40, and 0.50) in an effort to reduce the MAD value. Prepare a short report that summarizes your efforts.