Question: The manager of the Petroco Service Station wants to forecast the demand for unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be ordered from the distributor, The owner has accumulated the following data on demand for unleaded gasoline from sales during the past 10 months:

Month Gasoline Demanded (gal.)

October 800

November 725

December 630

January 500

February 645

March 690

April 730

May 810

June 1,200

July 980

a. Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast, using an a value of .30.

b. Compute an adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast (a = .30 and B = .20).

c. Compare the two forecasts by using MAPD and indicate which seems to be more accurate.