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(See) The last closely contested presidential election pitted John McCain against Barack Obama in 2008. A poll taken immediately before the 2008 election

Question: The last closely contested presidential election pitted John McCain against Barack Obama in

2008. A poll taken immediately before the 2008 election showed 51% of the sample intended to vote for Obama. The polling organization announced that they were 95% confident that the sample result was within 2% points of the true proportion of all voters who favored Obama.

  1. Explain in pl a i n l ang u a g e to someone who knows no statistics what "95% confidence" means in the announcement.
  2. The poll showed Obama leading. Yet the polling organization said the election was t oo c l o se t o c a l l . Explain why.

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