TIME SERIES PROJECT

Some Data Sources

TIME SERIES PARTICULARS

You must perform a complete time series analysis, making use of the following guidelines:

Requirements

• Double check that your data is NOT seasonally adjusted and that you have 8 years (must be either quarterly or monthly) of data in total.
• You can use a computer package to do the calculations and graphs, if you prefer. A part of your grade will be determined by the professionalism of your project. This refers to both content and presented form. It is expected that the report will be completed in a manner suitable for presentation in a professional environment.

Guidelines: The following are guidelines and not complete. Be creative in your explanations!

Table of Contents - It should list, in chronological order, the important topics covered in the project along with the page numbers.

Introduction - Give a brief description of each of the four time series components. You should explain the time series model and the respective assumptions. You should also explain the intent of the report and if possible, provide background information on your dependent variable.

Seasonal Variation - Calculate and interpret the four quarterly (or 12 monthly) seasonal indexes. Also graph and explain (as to the effect on your dependent variable) the seasonal indexes.

Trend Analysis

1. Based on the time series (original data) graph, describe the time series (i.e. before de-seasonalizing).
2. On the same graph as (a) graph the de-seasonalized time series.
3. Write out the Trend line equation provided by your computer (or manual) output and explain the meaning of the components (b ₀ , b ₁ ) as they apply to your dependent variable. ( De-seasonalize your data before finding the Trend Line ).

Cyclical-Irregular variation

1. Describe what are the common features of a cycle and indicate whether you feel your data exhibits any of these. i.e. does it reflect the current economic conditions?
2. Examine your data and comment on the presence of irregular variation. Can you tie it to an event?

Forecasting - Based on the trend equation you have obtained from your project, and the seasonal indices, predict the values for the last 4 quarters or 12 months.

1. Show all detailed calculations.
2. Plot the actual and predicted values against time on the same graph.

Discussion - Discuss the shortcomings and evaluate the accuracy of your predictions.

Price: $24.61

Solution: The downloadable solution consists of 15 pages, 961 words and 11 charts.
Deliverable: Word Document