Problem set 3

This problem set consists of three problems and a short essay. Each problem is worth 7 points, the essay is worth 4 points for a total of 25 points. The set is due by Monday November 28. Happy Thanksgiving.

1. What are the chances that tensions between a democratic (US) and autocratic (Iran) country will escalate to war?
   Initial probabilities based on the historical record:
   Wars between democracies and autocracies: .3
   No wars between democracies and autocracies: .7
   A panel of experts suggested the following symptoms and probabilities:
   Support war Against war Revised probabilities
   For war Against war
   1. negotiation progress .2 .7

2. military preparations .7 .2

3. nuclear development .6 .3

4. government reforms .3 .7

5. support from allies .6 .4

1. What are the revised probabilities for each of these symptoms?
2. What are the joint effects of negotiation progress and nuclear development on the chances of going to war?
3. What do you conclude from these analyses about the probability of war between these countries?

1. Is there a relationship between mediation activity and cooperation between two nations in conflict? A data set was assembled across 15 time periods. Both variables were measured on an interval scale ranging from 1 (low activity/cooperation) to 5 (high activity/cooperation).
   Mediator activity (IV): 1 1 1 2 3 4 2 1 3 2 1 4 5 4 3
   Cooperation (DV): 1 1 2 1 3 3 1 2 4 3 2 4 4 5 4
   1. Can cooperation be predicted from the level of mediator activity?
   2. Is there a relationship between these variables?

1. What do you conclude from these results?
2. What happens if we add another independent variable, internal policy shifts within one of the nations? This is also measured on a scale that ranges from 1 (no shifts) to 5 (many shifts in a peaceful direction).
   Policy shifts (IV2): 4 4 3 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 5
3. What do you conclude from this analysis? Which is the stronger IV?

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Solution: The downloadable solution consists of 10 pages, 633 words and 10 charts.
Deliverable: Word Document