Research Methods in International Relations

Problem 1: Levels of Measurement (10 pts)

In the Washington Post-ABC News Poll conducted April 21-24, 2005 ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/polls/post-abcpoll_042505.pdf , accessed June 5, 2005), the following two questions were posed to a random sample of 1007 US adults randomly selected nationwide:.

Which is the primary cause for the recent rise in oil and gasoline prices – other oil producing countries, US oil companies, the Bush administration, others?

(Answers in percentage of respondents.)

How confident are you that Iraq will have a stable, democratic government a year from now – very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not confident at all?

(Answers in percentage of respondents.)

Questions

1. What is the level of measurement for the variable "cause of the recent rise in oil and gasoline prices"?
   
2. What is the level of measurement for the variable "confidence that Iraq will have a stable, democratic government a year from now"?

Problem 2: Central Tendency – Mean, Median, Mode (15 pts)

The U.S. Census Bureau provides the following data on Hispanic and Latino population by state in the South region of the US:

Hispanic/Latino Population in the US South Region,

by Sub-region and State, 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Redistricting Data (P.L. 94-171) Summary File for states and Census 2000 Redistricting Summary File for Puerto Rico, Tables PL1 and PL2, http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/phc-t6/tab02.xls (accessed June 9, 2005).

Questions

Compute the mean, median and mode for the Hispanics and Latinos as a percentage of the population for ALL the states (including the District of Columbia) listed in the table above ( last column only ).

Make sure that you identify the formula AND describe in words the process for calculating each measure. Also, you must show each step in your calculations. It is critical to be thorough in your description and presentation.

1. Mean –
2. Median –
3. Mode –

Problem 3: Dispersion - Variance & Standard Deviation (10 pts)

The World Bank provides the following data on mortality rates per 1000 for children under 5 years of age in select countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

Mortality rate per 1000 for children under 5 years of age,

Middle East and North Africa , 2001

Source: World Bank, 2003 World Development Indicators database, World Bank, 13 April 2003; http://www.worldbank.org/data/databytopic/mna_wdi.pdf [accessed 3 April 2003].

Questions

1. Calculate the variance of the mortality rates for the countries in the table above.
2. Calculate the standard deviation.

Problem4: Nominal Measures of Association – Yule’s Q (15 pts)

One might expect that U.S. states with high rates of unionization would oppose the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), recently approved by Congress and signed by President Bush. Consider the data in the table below.

States above and below the mean unionization rate, and

their senators’ support or opposition to CAFTA

Note: States whose two senators were split on this issue (one against, one in favor) were excluded from this table.

Questions

1. Compute Yule’s Q for the date in the table above. Must show all calculations.
2. Suppose for the dependent variable (Senatorial votes on CAFTA) we listed "States whose two senators voted against CAFTA" (and the associated data) in the second row, and "States whose two senators voted for CAFTA" (and the associated data) in the first row. Would the value of Q be different from what you computed in Question 2 above? In what way? Which value of Q shows a stronger relationship? Explain why .
3. Suppose the value of only one of the data cells were changed to "0", but the other three values stayed the same. How strong would the relationship be as indicated by Yule’s Q? Why or why not is this a good indicator of the strength of the relationship between the two variables? Must explain .

Problem 5: Ordinal Measures of Association – Gamma (15 pts)

One might hypothesize that higher education is associated with greater levels of regular acquisition of political and economic information.

Consider the table below.

Level of Education and Consumption of Television News

Source : Herbert F. Weisberg, "The Fundamentals of Data Analysis", in Herbert B. Asher, eds., Theory-Building and Data Analysis in the Social Sciences , 1984.

Question

1. Please calculate gamma for the relationship between years of education and time spent watching television news. You must show all calculations.

Problem 6: Ordinal Measures of Association – Somer’s d (5 pts)

The same data presented in Problem 5 above, is reproduced again below.

Level of Education and Consumption of Television News

Source : Herbert F. Weisberg, "The Fundamentals of Data Analysis", in Herbert B. Asher, eds., Theory-Building and Data Analysis in the Social Sciences , 1984.

Question

1. Please calculate Somer’s d for the relationship between years of education and time spent watching television news. You must show all calculations.

Problem 7: Interval Measures of Association – Regression and Correlation (30 pts)

One might expect that expenditure on national defense would be in part determined by the size of a country’s national economy. Consider the data in the table below on gross domestic product (GDP) and defense spending in the mid-size NATO countries.

Gross Domestic Product and Total Defense Spending

of Mid-Size NATO Countries*, 2002 (US$ billions)

Source: Allied Contributions to the Common Defense , U.S. Government, Department of Defense, July 2003. < http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/allied_contrib2003/index.html >

*Includes only NATO countries with GDP greater than $100 billion and less than $1 trillion.

Questions

1. Plot all 10 pairs of data on a scatter-plot chart.
   NOTE : There should be only one set of 10 data points in your chart. Hint : In Excel, highlight your two data columns, Insert Chart , and select the "XY Scatter" chart type and then the simple " Scatter" (no line) chart sub-type. Also, note that the independent variable always goes on the X-axis. Should paste from Excel here.
   Make sure to give the chart an appropriately descriptive title, label your axes appropriately, designate the units of measurement, and provide full citation of source. These are required for all charts and graphs.
2. Compute the slope of the regression line, b for the data in the table above.
   Note: Be sure to show your calculations by using the model on page 331 in the textbook.
3. Compute the intercept, a for the data in the table above.
   Note: Do not to use a rounded figure for b in this calculation. Also, show your all calculations.
4. Compute Pearson’s r (the correlation coefficient) and r ² (the variance) for the data in the table. Must show all calculations.

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