Let Y_1,....,Y_n~ Exp(θ), so f(y)=(1)/(theta ){e^{-y/θ }}, y>0,θ >0 (a) Fi

Question: Time- Series Analysis

The following time series data represents the mean yearly US unemployment rate between January 1995 and September 2005 (obtained from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics):

Year	Unemployment rate (%)
1995	5.59
1996	5.40
1997	4.94
1998	4.50
1999	1.21
2000	3.97
2001	4.75
2002	5.78
2003	5.99
2004	5.52
2005	5.12

A) Plot the time series on a line chart and show the trendline for unemployment rate. [First change the calendar year into 1, 2, 3 ..series. Then, use Megastat, Correlation/regression, scatterplot. Put year in horizontal axis and unemployment rate in y-axis].

B) Does the trend line show an increase, decrease or no change in the employment rate during 1995-2005?

C) Determine the linear regression equation for the time series. [hint: Megastat, correlation/regression, scatterplot will generate the regression equation]

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