(a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. (b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible
Question: (a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments. (b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes. (c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain. (d) Make a similar graph for 1992-2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004? (e) Fit a trend model of your choice to the 1992-2003 data. (f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set?
U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1966-2003 | |||||||
Year | Planes | Year | Planes | Year | Planes | Year | Planes |
1966 | 15,587 | 1976 | 15,451 | 1986 | 1,495 | 1996 | 1,053 |
1967 | 13,484 | 1977 | 16,904 | 1987 | 1,085 | 1997 | 1,482 |
1968 | 13,556 | 1978 | 17,811 | 1988 | 1,143 | 1998 | 2,115 |
1969 | 12,407 | 1979 | 17,048 | 1989 | 1,535 | 1999 | 2,421 |
1970 | 7,277 | 1980 | 11,877 | 1990 | 1,134 | 2000 | 2,714 |
1971 | 7,346 | 1981 | 9,457 | 1991 | 1,021 | 2001 | 2,538 |
1972 | 9,774 | 1982 | 4,266 | 1992 | 856 | 2002 | 2,169 |
1973 | 13,646 | 1983 | 2,691 | 1993 | 870 | 2003 | 2,090 |
1974 | 14,166 | 1984 | 2,431 | 1994 | 881 | ||
1975 | 14,056 | 1985 | 2,029 | 1995 | 1,028 |
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Deliverable: Word Document
Deliverable: Word Document