For the data below YEAR AUTOMOTIVE SALES YEAR AUTOMOTIVE SALES 1980

Question: For the data below

YEAR	AUTOMOTIVE SALES	YEAR	AUTOMOTIVE SALES
1980	116	1987	119
1981	105	1988	34
1982	29	1989	34
1983	59	1990	48
1984	108	1991	53
1985	94	1992	65
1986	27	1993	111

a) Using a 3-year moving average forecast. Show the forecast estimates for 1986 to 1993. What is the forecast for 1994?

b) Using exponential smoothing forecast with a smoothing constant of 0.6, show the forecast estimates for 1986 to 1993. What is the forecast for 1994?

c) Using a regression model, show the corresponding forecast estimates for 1986 to 1993. What is the forecast for 1994?

d) Find the MAD (Mean Average Deviation) for each forecast model. Determine which forecasting model seems to provide the best forecast for the above set of data.

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