Question: Using regression analysis, forecast the *monthly* consumption of natural gas for commercial consumers in 2018 using the date from 1990-2017. With what level of confidence could you conclude that the estimated coefficients are not equal to zero? How do you know? Interpret the coefficient estimates.

Compare the forecasted values to the actual 2018 values for commercial consumers. With what level of confidence could you conclude that the forecasted value is different than the actual value? (See the "Hint" for information about how to do this!) How do you know? Discuss these results in terms of the accuracy of your forecast.

HINT: To answer the question as to whether or not your forecasted values are significantly different than the actual values for 2017, you need to compute t-statistics and determine the significance levels.

t = (Forecasted Value - Actual Value)/Standard Error

The standard error will be given in your regression output, labeled "Standard Error" in the Regression Statistics section. To determine the significance level of the t-tests, use the Excel function T.DIST.2T. It’s form is T.DIST.2T(x, df) where x is the t-statistic, and df is the degrees of freedom which is equal to the number of observations minus 1.

Use the excel worksheet to provide your output and provide your answers in word.

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