Solution: As you can see in the following table, demand for hear transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few


Question: As you can see in the following table, demand for hear transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
Heart Transplant Surgeries Performed 45 50 52 56 58 ?

The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries.

  1. Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of 0.6 and then with one of 0.9 to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.
  2. Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4, 5, and 6.
  3. Use Linear Regression to forecast demand in years 1 through 6.
  4. With MAD as the criterion, which of the above four forecasts is best?

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Solution: The downloadable solution consists of 3 pages
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