Solution: As you can see in the following table, demand for hear transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few
Question: As you can see in the following table, demand for hear transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Heart Transplant Surgeries Performed | 45 | 50 | 52 | 56 | 58 | ? |
The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 41 surgeries.
- Use exponential smoothing, first with a smoothing constant of 0.6 and then with one of 0.9 to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.
- Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in years 4, 5, and 6.
- Use Linear Regression to forecast demand in years 1 through 6.
- With MAD as the criterion, which of the above four forecasts is best?
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