Question:

M. S. Kanarek and associates studied the relationship between cancer rates and levels of asbestos

in the drinking water, in 722 Census tracts around San Francisco Bay. They tested over 200

relationships – different types of cancer, different demographic groups, different ways of adjusting for possible confounding variables. After adjusting for age and socioeconomic status (but not smoking), they found a "strong relationship" between the rate of lung cancer among white males and the concentration of asbestos fibers in the drinking water: p < .001.

They found that a 100-fold increase in asbestos concentration was associated with a 1.05-fold

increase in the lung cancer rate, on average. (This means: If tract B has 100 times the concentration of asbestos fibers in the water as tract A, and the lung cancer rate for white males in tract A is 1 per 1,000 persons per year, then tract B is predicted to have a rate of 1.05 per 1,000 persons per year.)

Are you convinced that asbestos in the drinking water causes lung cancer among white males, to

a degree that steps should be taken to reduce it? Please point to at least three distinct flaws in

this analysis.

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