(See Solution) Forecasting Attendance at SWU Football Games Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, enrolls close to 20,000
Question: Forecasting Attendance at SWU Football Games
Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, enrolls close to 20,000 students. The school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents.
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SWU’s president, Dr. Marty Starr, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would "max out". He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $20 in 2008 and a 5% increase each year in future prices.
Questions:
Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2009.
What revenues are to be expected in 2008 and 2004?
Discuss the school’s options.
| Southwestern university Football Game Attendance, 2002-2007 | ||||||
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | ||||
| GAME | ATTENDEES | OPPONENT | ATTENDEES | OPPONENT | ATTENDEES | OPPONENTS |
| 1 | 34,200 | Baylor | 36,100 | Oklahoma | 35,900 | TCU |
| 2* | 39,800 | Texas | 40,200 | Nebraska | 46,500 | Texas Tech |
| 3 | 38,200 | LSU | 39,100 | UCLA | 43,100 | Alaska |
| 4** | 26,900 | Arkansas | 25,300 | Nevada | 27,900 | Arizona |
| 5 | 35,100 | USC | 36,200 | Ohio State | 39,200 | Rice |
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | ||||
| GAME | ATTENDEES | OPPONENT | ATTENDEES | OPPONENT | ATTENDEES | OPPONENTS |
| 1 | 41,900 | Arkansas | 42,500 | Indiana | 46,900 | LSU |
| 2* | 46,100 | Missouri | 48,200 | North Texas | 50,100 | Texas |
| 3 | 43,900 | Florida | 44,200 | Texas A&M | 45,900 | Prairie view A&M |
| 4** | 30,100 | Miami | 33,900 | Southern | 36,300 | Montana |
| 5 | 40,500 | Duke | 47,800 | Oklahoma | 49,900 | Arizona State |
| *Homecoming games. | ||||||
| **During the fourth week of each season, Stephenvile hosted a hugely popular southwestern crafts | ||||||
| festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, | ||||||
| and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance. | ||||||
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