[See Steps] The following data have a seasonal component. Complete the missing values. YOU WILL NEED TO USE THE REGRESSION RESULTS BELOW TO HELP COMPLETE
Question: The following data have a seasonal component. Complete the missing values. YOU WILL NEED TO USE THE REGRESSION RESULTS BELOW TO HELP COMPLETE THE TABLE ABOVE
| Trend | Month |
Original
Series |
12-
month MA |
Ratio of
Original To MA |
Unadjusted
Seasonal Index |
Adjusted
Seasonal Index |
Seasonal
Index |
Seasonally
Adjusted Series |
Trend
Projection |
Forecast |
| 1 | 1 | 8427.5 | 94.9 | 8878.3 | 6935.9 | 6583.7 | ||||
| 2 | 2 | 6375.6 | 80.9 | 7884.5 | 7150.1 | 5781.7 | ||||
| 3 | 3 | 7590.2 | 84.1 | 9020.8 | 7364.3 | 6196.4 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | 7687.0 | 94.9 | 8099.1 | 7578.5 | 7192.9 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 7758.0 | 97.4 | 7964.3 | 7792.7 | 7590.9 | ||||
| 6 | 6 | 8398.0 | 8164.0 | 8007.0 | 8236.4 | |||||
| 7 | 7 | 8975.0 | 107.2 | 8375.5 | 8221.2 | 8809.6 | ||||
| 8 | 8 | 10043.0 | 111.7 | 8994.2 | 8435.4 | 9419.0 | ||||
| 9 | 9 | 9928.0 | 111.4 | 8908.2 | 8649.6 | |||||
| 10 | 10 | 10808.0 | 9521.7 | 8863.8 | 10061.2 | |||||
| 11 | 11 | 8879.0 | 108.7 | 8171.9 | 9078.0 | 9863.5 | ||||
| 12 | 12 | 7409.0 | 8523.2 | 86.9 | 102.1 | 92.5 | 92.5 | 8013.2 | 8591.6 | |
| 13 | 1 | 8415.4 | 8522.2 | 98.7 | 104.8 | 94.9 | 94.9 | 8865.5 | 9506.4 | 9023.7 |
| 14 | 2 | 8020.8 | 8659.3 | 92.6 | 89.3 | 80.9 | 80.9 | 9919.1 | 9720.6 | 7860.3 |
| 15 | 3 | 7259.0 | 84.1 | 92.9 | 84.1 | 84.1 | 9934.9 | 8359.3 | ||
| 16 | 4 | 9098.0 | 8749.3 | 104.0 | 104.8 | 94.9 | 94.9 | 9585.7 | 10149.1 | 9632.7 |
| 17 | 5 | 9847.0 | 8923.4 | 110.4 | 107.6 | 97.4 | 97.4 | 10108.9 | 10363.3 | |
| 18 | 6 | 10727.0 | 9117.4 | 113.6 | 102.9 | 102.9 | 10428.1 | 10577.5 | 10880.6 | |
| 19 | 7 | 11213.0 | 9303.9 | 120.5 | 118.3 | 107.2 | 107.2 | 10464.0 | 10791.7 | 11564.1 |
| 20 | 8 | 12671.0 | 9522.9 | 133.1 | 111.7 | 11347.7 | 11005.9 | 12289.3 | ||
| 21 | 9 | 12292.0 | 9719.9 | 126.5 | 123.1 | 111.4 | 111.4 | 11029.4 | 11220.1 | 12504.5 |
| 22 | 10 | 11455.0 | 9773.9 | 117.2 | 125.4 | 113.5 | 113.5 | 10091.7 | 11434.3 | 12979.0 |
| 23 | 11 | 12570.0 | 10081.4 | 124.7 | 120.0 | 108.7 | 108.7 | 11648.5 | 12656.5 | |
| 24 | 12 | 11625.0 | 10432.8 | 111.4 | 92.5 | 12573.1 | 11862.8 | 10968.3 | ||
| 25 | 1 | 11403.5 | 10681.8 | 106.8 | 94.9 | 12013.5 | 12077.0 | 11463.8 | ||
| 26 | 2 | 9629.6 | 10815.8 | 89.0 | 80.9 | 11908.7 | 12291.2 | 9938.9 | ||
| 27 | 3 | 10110.0 | 11053.4 | 91.5 | 84.1 | 12015.6 | 12505.4 | 10522.2 | ||
| 28 | 4 | 11521.9 | 11255.4 | 102.4 | 94.9 | 12139.6 | 12719.6 | 12072.4 | ||
| 29 | 5 | 11884.7 | 11425.2 | 104.0 | 97.4 | 12200.8 | 12933.8 | 12598.7 | ||
| 30 | 6 | 12127.3 | 11541.9 | 105.1 | 102.9 | 11789.4 | 13148.0 | 13524.8 | ||
| 31 | 7 | 13438.6 | 11727.4 | 114.6 | 107.2 | 12541.0 | 13362.2 | 14318.6 | ||
| 32 | 8 | 13764.9 | 11818.5 | 116.5 | 111.7 | 12327.4 | 13576.4 | 15159.6 | ||
| 33 | 9 | 14747.5 | 12023.2 | 122.7 | 111.4 | 13232.7 | 13790.7 | 15369.3 | ||
| 34 | 10 | 16458.3 | 12440.1 | 132.3 | 113.5 | 14499.5 | 14004.9 | 15896.8 | ||
| 35 | 11 | 14156.9 | 12572.4 | 112.6 | 108.7 | 13029.4 | 14219.1 | 15449.5 | ||
| 36 | 12 | 13192.8 | 12703.0 | 103.9 | 92.5 | 14268.7 | 14433.3 | 13345.0 | ||
| 37 | 1 | 14089.0 | 12926.8 | 109.0 | 94.9 | 14842.6 | 14647.5 | 13903.8 | ||
| 38 | 2 | 11267.1 | 13063.3 | 86.3 | 80.9 | 13933.7 | 14861.7 | 12017.5 | ||
| 39 | 3 | 13800.1 | 13370.8 | 103.2 | 84.1 | 16401.2 | 15075.9 | 12685.0 | ||
| 40 | 4 | 14744.8 | 13639.3 | 108.1 | 94.9 | 15535.3 | 15290.1 | 14512.1 | ||
| 41 | 5 | 15067.1 | 13904.5 | 108.4 | 97.4 | 15467.8 | 15504.3 | 15102.7 | ||
| 42 | 6 | 16887.8 | 14301.2 | 118.1 | 102.9 | 16417.3 | 15718.6 | 16169.0 | ||
| 43 | 7 | 17562.1 | 14644.9 | 119.9 | 107.2 | 16389.1 | 15932.8 | 17073.1 | ||
| 44 | 8 | 18067.9 | 15003.5 | 120.4 | 111.7 | 16181.0 | 16147.0 | 18029.9 | ||
| 45 | 9 | 18386.9 | 15306.7 | 120.1 | 111.4 | 16498.3 | 16361.2 | 18234.1 | ||
| 46 | 10 | 19718.2 | 15578.4 | 126.6 | 113.5 | 17371.5 | 16575.4 | 18814.6 | ||
| 47 | 11 | 19679.0 | 16038.6 | 122.7 | 108.7 | 18111.8 | 16789.6 | 18242.4 | ||
| 48 | 12 | 17412.0 | 16390.2 | 106.2 | 92.5 | 18832.0 | 17003.8 | 15721.7 |
-
Note that the Adjusted Seasonal Index for October (the 10th month) is 113.5. What does this number mean?
To estimate the Trend, a regression of the Seasonally Adjusted Series on a trend yielded the following results.
- What is your forecast for the 59th observations?
- What is your forecast of the 80th observation?
Deliverable: Word Document 
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