(See Solution) Dupont University Technology Partners: Answer Sheet For output from Crystal Ball to support your answer, please circle the relevant numbers
Question: Dupont University Technology Partners: Answer Sheet
For output from Crystal Ball to support your answer,
please circle the relevant numbers in
RED
on the CB output.
Please think about what documentation to include: don't include everything and make me
wade through lots of irrelevant or redundant documentation.
-
(6 points)
-
What is the expected
t
o
t
a
l
pa
y
o
f
f
(
n
o
t
i
nc
l
ud
i
ng
t
h
e
i
n
i
t
i
a
l
i
n
v
e
s
t
m
en
t
s
) of the
DUTP portfolio? -
What is the
p
r
ob
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
that the total payoff is more than the total invested?
(ii) Assuming that the distribution is approximately normal, we compute:
\[\Pr \left( X\ge {80.7} \right) = \Pr \left( \frac{X-{97.75}}{30.05}\ge \frac{{80.7}-{97.75}}{30.05} \right) = \Pr \left( Z\ge -0.5674 \right) = 1-\Pr \left( Z\le -0.5674 \right) = 1-{0.2852} = {0.7148}\]
-
What is the expected
t
o
t
a
l
pa
y
o
f
f
(
n
o
t
i
nc
l
ud
i
ng
t
h
e
i
n
i
t
i
a
l
i
n
v
e
s
t
m
en
t
s
) of the
-
(4 points)
-
What is the expected number of DUTP companies that will be
"
su
c
ce
s
s
f
u
l
"
in that
their returns w il l ex c eed the amount originally invested in the company? -
What is the probability that
10
or
m
o
r
e co
m
pan
i
es
will
be
s
ucc
e
s
s
f
ul
by this criterion?
(ii) For the proportion of successful companies we get:
Hence, the estimate of the probability of a given company to be successful is p = 0.83. We need to approximate the following probability:
-
What is the expected number of DUTP companies that will be
"
su
c
ce
s
s
f
u
l
"
in that
-
(4 points)
- What is the expected payment to Dupont University from DUTP?
-
What is the probability that the other investors will receive any money at all?
(ii) Now, for the amount received by other investors:
They receive an average of $18.86 million, with a standard deviation of $23.26 million. We compute:
-
(6 points)
-
Suppose they replace DUTP's variable original management fee (10% of gross proceeds)
with a f i xed f ee.
- What new f ee and pa y m en t s by Dupont and the other limited partners would be
" eq u i t ab l e" in the sense of giving all parties the s a m e expe c t ed v a l ues as in the original
deal?
- Specify the fi x ed f ee t h a t t h e m ana g e r s would r e c e i v e and how m uch of t h at f ee s h ou l d
b e p a i d by D upont and h ow m uch s hou l d b e p a i d by t he o t h er l i m it ed p a rt n e r s .
-
Suppose they replace DUTP's variable original management fee (10% of gross proceeds)
i
i
)
How would this "equitable" payment of fees
a
f
f
e
c
t
t
he
r
i
s
k
s
t
a
k
en
by
D
upont
and the
o
t
h
er
li
m
it
ed
pa
r
t
n
e
r
s
?
- Compare the
ri
sk
p
r
o
f
i
l
e
s
with the new and old fee arrangements for both Dupont and
the other limited partners.
S
h
ow
an o
v
e
r
l
a
y
cha
r
t
and
d
i
s
c
u
ss
t
he
c
h
a
n
g
es
(
written
explanation
).
(i.e. Consider Risk Averse, Risk Neutral and Risk Adverse Positions).
Deliverable: Word Document 