Statistics Solutions

(See Solution) The data in this table contains the Composite information over a five-year period. Data represents the composite data for a well-known mutual

Question: The data in this table contains the Composite information over a five-year period. Data represents the composite data for a well-known mutual fund index.

Use this data to evaluate which of four smoothing methods is the best (Use the MAD criterion), then perform a trend analysis and check for any quarterly seasonal pattern. Use Quarter 1 as the base in your additive model.

The Smoothing methods to consider are:

Moving Average of three: MA (3)

Moving Average of four: MA(4)

Exponential Smoothing Exp (w = 0.58)

Exponential Smoothing Exp (w = 0.78)

Use the information above to forecast year 7.

Date: Oct, 2008
YEAR QUARTER Time COMPOSITE
1 One 1 3697
Two 2 3484
Three 3 3553
Four 4 3837
2 One 5 4126
Two 6 3699
Three 7 3742
Four 8 4055
3 One 9 4319
Two 10 3870
Three 11 3996
Four 12 4237
4 One 13 4445
Two 14 4120
Three 15 4264
Four 16 4346
5 One 17 4546
Two 18 4307
Three 19 4444
Four 20 4329
Time COMPOSITE MA(3) - Forecast 1 MA(4) - Forecast 2 Exp(w = 0.58) - Forecast 3 Exp(w = 0.78) - Forecast 4 Abs. Error 1 Abs. Error 2. Abs. Error 3 Abs. Error 4
1 3697 3697 3697 0 0
2 3484 3697 3697 213 213
3 3553 3573.46 3530.86 20.46 22.14
4 3837 3578 3561.5932 3548.1292 259 275.4068 288.8708
5 4126 3624.666667 3642.75 3721.329144 3773.448424 501.3333 483.25 404.6709 352.5516
6 3699 3838.666667 3750 3956.03824 4048.438653 139.6667 51 257.0382 349.4387
7 3742 3887.333333 3803.75 3806.956061 3775.876504 145.3333 61.75 64.95606 33.8765
8 4055 3855.666667 3851 3769.281546 3749.452831 199.3333 204 285.7185 305.5472
9 4319 3832 3905.5 3934.998249 3987.779623 487 413.5 384.0018 331.2204
10 3870 4038.666667 3953.75 4157.719265 4246.131517 168.6667 83.75 287.7193 376.1315
11 3996 4081.333333 3996.5 3990.842091 3952.748934 85.33333 0.5 5.157909 43.25107
12 4237 4061.666667 4060 3993.833678 3986.484765 175.3333 177 243.1663 250.5152
13 4445 4034.333333 4105.5 4134.870145 4181.886648 410.6667 339.5 310.1299 263.1134
14 4120 4226 4137 4314.745461 4387.115063 106 17 194.7455 267.1151
15 4264 4267.333333 4199.5 4201.793094 4178.765314 3.333333 64.5 62.20691 85.23469
16 4346 4276.333333 4266.5 4237.873099 4245.248369 69.66667 79.5 108.1269 100.7516
17 4546 4243.333333 4293.75 4300.586702 4323.834641 302.6667 252.25 245.4133 222.1654
18 4307 4385.333333 4319 4442.926415 4497.123621 78.33333 12 135.9264 190.1236
19 4444 4399.666667 4365.75 4364.089094 4348.827197 44.33333 78.25 79.91091 95.1728
20 4329 4432.333333 4410.75 4410.43742 4423.061983 103.3333 81.75 81.43742 94.06198
MAD = 192.902 149.9688 182.9596 194.2141

Price: $2.99
Solution: The downloadable solution consists of 6 pages
Deliverable: Word Document


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