Question: Consider the following information

Table 3.5 Prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease Table 3.6 Age–sex distribution of retirement

(cases per 100 population) community

Age group Males Females Age group Male (%) ^a Female (%) ^a

65–69 1.6 0.0 65–69 5 10

70–74 0.0 2.2 70–74 9 17

75–79 4.9 2.3 75–79 11 18

80–84 8.6 7.8 80–84 8 12

85 + 35.0 27.9 85 + 4 6

^a Percentage of total population

Suppose an unrelated 77-year-old man, 76-year-old woman, and 82-year-old woman are selected from a community.

Suppose we know one of the three people has Alzheimer’s disease, but we don’t know which one. What is the conditional probability that the affected person is a woman?

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