Question: Commercial planes have an excellent safety record.  Nevertheless, these are crashes occasionally, with the loss of many lives.  In the weeks following a crash, airlines often report a drop in the number of passengers, probably because people are afraid to risk flying.

1. A travel agent suggests that, since the law of averages makes it highly unlikely to have two plane crashes within a few weeks of each, flying soon after a crash, is the safest time.  What do you think?
2. If the airline industry proudly announces that is has set a new record for the longest period of safe flights, would you be reluctant to fly?  Are the airlines due to have a plane crash?
3. State the law of averages and explain for each of the parts above why it does or does not apply to the questions in a and b.

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