[Solution] Based on historical data, if the lot is poor quality, 40% of the items are defective. If the lot is fair quality 22% of the items are defective.
Question: (6 points) Based on historical data, if the lot is poor quality, 40% of the items are defective. If the lot is fair quality 22% of the items are defective. If the lot is good quality, 10% of items are defective. The quality control manager inspects one unit from a recent shipment. After inspecting it he determines that the unit is defective. Based on this additional information, determine the revised (posterior) probabilities for each of the three states of nature.
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