Naive Forecast Calculator


Instructions: You can use this Naive Forecast Calculator for a given times series data set, by providing a time series set of data. Also, you can indicate if the data periods are months or not, and you optionally can write your own custom names for the time periods in the form below:

Data (space or comma separated)
Monthly Time Periods?
Starting Month:
Custom Period Labels (optional)

Naive Forecast Calculator

More about the Naive Forecasting method so you can get a better understanding of the outcome that will be provided by this solver. The idea behind the naive method for forecasting is to simply choose the data value from the previous period to estimate the next period. Mathematically:\(n\)

\[ \text{Forecast during period n} = \hat Y_n = \hat Y_{n-1} \]

The Naive forecasting method of forecasting is one the easiest of all methods. Other more sophisticated methods are the moving averages methods (MA), the exponential smoothing forecast method, and the linear trend forecasting method, just to mention a few.




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